2018 was a productive year. I hope that your 2018 was a good one; one full of health, happiness and prosperity. My format from October, though brief and written more in the form of “Soundbites” rather than “deep content”, seemed to go over well. As the feedback (thank you) was generally positive (easier and faster to read) I will follow the same format with this update.
Since my last blog in June, the year continues to be robust for most. With the sun and wind at our backs; transactions flourish. Hit ratios suffer given the competition everyone faces to find, capitalized, and recapitalize a deal; but everyone seems to be prospering nonetheless.
The old saying “I would rather be lucky than smart”; how would we ever really know which of the two drove our individual fate professionally?
I just came back from the Spring ULI Council Meeting in Detroit. After Council Dinner I had a conversation with my oldest son about a class he is taking for his MBA. He was talking about “Red Ocean and Blue Ocean” businesses.
For almost 40 years I have enjoyed “tilting at windmills” in and around the Commercial Real Estate Industry. Two of my favorite rants have been directed at the Portfolio Lenders (early 90’s) and the Conduits (late 90’s).
Jack Cohen, the CEO of Darkknight Ventures, injected some levity into the discussion.
I just returned from the MBA CREF conference in San Diego, and one of my colleagues made the observation that "forecasting and making predictions of future movements in the cycle (property, economic, and capital flows) were based upon the past." This really got me thinking.
I am excited about 2018; I am excited about the uncertainty ahead. I truly believe that the industry is approaching an inflection point. Good? Bad? Unknown; however, what is known is we have an unprecedented opportunity to benefit from changes in revenue models of businesses operating across and adjacent to the real estate industry.