JackChat January 2026

I just returned from another outstanding CREFC conference. Credit is due to CREFC’s leadership, Lisa, the staff, and the conference chairs—who consistently set the standard for how an industry conference should be run. In my view, no other Industry Association comes close. Rumor has it there were roughly 2,400 registered attendees, and when you factor in the many unregistered participants braving the rain around town, total industry participation likely exceeded 5,000. These numbers set new records for CREFC and, more impressively, surpass even the MBA CREF conferences at their peak. It’s remarkable to reflect on how much both the industry and CREFC itself have evolved.

Speaking of evolution, one of my colleagues and I were musing about how the industry has changed. When I started in the business CREF capital largely came from the life insurance companies. MBA CREF was the go-to conference, and it was dominated (and dare I say controlled) by the mortgage bankers’ needs to hear from their LifeCo correspondents about their goals and objectives for the coming year. But, alas, it was more than that. WAY more than that. There was a real distinction between mortgage bankers and mortgage brokers. The mortgage bankers were regional correspondents and had exclusives to represent the Lifecos. We wanted to go to MBA CREF to share with and learn from our out-of-market peers. We NEEDED this catch-up opportunity. But what about today?

Today, there is no distinction between mortgage banker and mortgage broker, there are no territorial exclusives enjoyed by intermediaries, LifeCos are either owned by Private Equity or have turned over managing their money to the street to manage. Debt Funds are a real thing, and they seem to dominate the news as well as market share.

Our business is changing faster than ever. There are challenges ahead, but there are also real opportunities. In 2026, what you choose to focus on—opportunity or threat—is your decision. If you stand for nothing, you will fall for anything. Develop a plan. Execute it relentlessly. And continue evolving your business to remain relevant in a rapidly changing industry. (Please feel free to review my year end blog on Annual Planning)

Things that stood out to me:

• The next generation of CRE professionals is stellar. The industry is in good hands.
• LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY. There is an incredible amount of capital ready to come into investing in hard and soft CRE assets. Competition will be fierce; spreads with compress, duration will shorten, and prepayment protection will be challenged.
• There is tremendous pressure to get money out. This will drive spread compression. One capital provider made the mistake of saying on stage that he couldn’t get the money out fast enough.
• Banks are back. Construction lending. Spreads falling below S+210. If there was any segment ill-equipped to behave this way, it’s the banks. It’s why I am bullish on debt funds. They are the skilled lenders (and borrowers). Alas, we can’t legislate against greed or stupidity. Banks should place back leverage for debt funds and leave the actual lending to the professionals.
• I continue to worry about a few things:
• An industry that historically was financed long and fixed is now financed short and floating. This leaves little room for flaws in sponsor execution on their brick-and-mortar business plans.
• The world feels increasingly upside down. Long-standing norms are being challenged, and what was once broadly accepted is now hotly contested. We have a president who appears to misunderstand some of the most basic principles of U.S. governance, including the separation of powers (Thank you Jefferson and Hamilton) and the Federal Reserve’s independence. At the same time, public standards of morality seem more blurred than ever. Yet despite all this geopolitical and social volatility, the markets appear largely indifferent.
• AI will have to correct. When that correction (the big seven represents all the growth in the S+P) takes place who gets hurt? How will we see those affects ripple through the economy?
• Conference hubris is back
• People STILL are hiding their problems.
• The industry possesses a trading mindset about CRE hard and soft assets.

Are you ready for a prosperous 2026? I know that I am. VERY EXCITED about what’s coming.